100 years storm is coming, time to find your safe harbour

"The empire, once divided, must unite; once united, must divide.

“話說天下大勢．分久必合，合久必分”

— in the first line of 'Romance of the Three Kingdoms.’

Current World Order

Nature operates in cyclical patterns, applicable to almost everything in our world—weather, life, human endeavours, and even empires. Examining history, we observe that no empire can maintain its peak forever; decline always follows the zenith. Over thousands of years of human history, we can observe no shortage of examples on the rise and fall of empires—from the Egyptian and Persian to the Roman, Chinese, Dutch, British, and now the USA—surprisingly human haven’t really changed much, except different in clothing wear and technology used.

In recent centuries, the world order has largely been shaped by the result of post-World War 2, led by US and Western Allies. Various US-led world organizations such as the World Trade Organization, World Bank, NATO has been created to facilitate the progress.

While globalization, free trade, industrialization, and democracy seem to suggest that the (only) path to prosperity for developing nations involves joining the global order, underneath reveals hidden rules set by powerful stakeholder, and enjoy the right to choose when to/not to comply with those very same rule set by them.

The world has gradually shifted towards an universally dominant narrative, largely shaped by the Western value. Influenced by hidden propaganda, it shapes various aspects from national policies and the economy down to individual lifestyles, diet, and personal values through media, entertainment, and the education system. This shift is further driven by the widespread use of the internet and technology.

Despite some conflicts and unfortunate war happened during the period after, most of conflicts have been contained within the region, without escalating into global stage-level conflict. The world enjoying a "relatively peaceful”and stability prevailed. One reason is that there hasn’t been any nation/alliance (after the collapse of the Soviet Union) powerful enough to pose a significant challenge to the existing power (or it has been subdued before posing any potential threat, i.e., Japan in 1985 following the Plaza Accord Agreement with subsequent “lost decade”) and the rest of the parties choose to comply with its benefits rather than challenging it, considering it a risk/benefit calculation.

However, this dynamic is poised for change since 2009. China's emergence as the largest US foreign debtor in 2010, marking its status as the world's second-largest economy, signifies a turning point. For the first time post-WW2, a country/alliance, growing in strength, post the potential (not necessary intention) to challenge the existing order, with no sign of stopping it’s development. The irreconcilable divergence between two superpowers has begun.

Generally, the leading power won’t give up it’s position without a fight.

The conflict between global superpowers typically unfolds in several stages:

• Trade war - 2018 ( US-China trade war)

• Technology war- 2018 (US-China tech war)

• Capital war -2021 (The Capital Markets Tug-of-War Between US and China)

• Geopolitical influence war -2024 (BRICS Is Getting 6 New Members)

• The military war?

Well, it's an open secret that competition has begun, and both superpowers have been “testing water” and wrestling over strength on/beneath the surface.

However, the last stage, military war, is different this time from past, because both possess nuclear weapons. The use of nuclear weapons can not only destroy the superpowers but also have devastating global consequences. While they may indirectly engage in various military conflicts in other region as proxy. (e.g. pay close attention on conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip).

In a sensible situation, the top two superpowers would try to avoid direct military confrontation due to the potential for mutual destruction in a nuclear war.

History, though, shows that this isn't always the case.

'When there is no enemy within, the enemies outside cannot hurt you.’”

— Winston Churchill

Debt

The world currently faces a staggering $300 trillion in debt, and the implications are significant. To grasp the enormity of this, consider that every person on Earth would need to work without pay for 3.5 years to settle this debt.

As of 01 Jan 2024, the USA national debt stands at approximately $34 trillion.

The debt-to-GDP ratios at 122%. This means that for every dollar output, $1.22 is owed. (source).

Each every U.S. citizen owes around $100,000 on average.

(This figure could rise when considering other mandatory obligations of the U.S. government)

Addressing this colossal debt involves some difficult choices, and they generally fall into four categories:

1. Cut Spending: Governments can tighten their belts and reduce expenditures.

2. Reduce Debt (Default): This involves acknowledging an inability to repay and negotiating new terms or defaulting.

3. Redistribution of Wealth: Governments may opt to tax the rich to support the poor, a move that is often met with political challenges. The wealthy class will use it’s influence to prevent this.

4. Print Money: Governments can create new money or lower interest rates to pay off existing debts. It's the easiest way out but comes with consequences.

Much like individuals managing their finances, nations must strike a balance between spending less and earning more to build savings and gradually reduce debt.

So, are we witnessing signs of reduced spending?

(CBO Report)

A report from the US Congressional Budget Office sheds light on the U.S.'s fiscal situation over the next 10 years

Two key takeaways are:

1. The U.S. has been running a deficit for the past two decades, spending more than she earns.

2. Projections indicate a likely increase in the deficit over the next 10 years, suggesting a lack of intention on spending reduction

Debt Jubilee

The idea of a debt jubilee, a widespread forgiveness or cancellation of debts, has deep historical roots dating back to ancient civilizations such as Mesopotamia and Babylon in 1754 BCE. Historically, debt jubilees were proclaimed during economic hardships. The aim was to alleviate financial burdens, address wealth inequality, and prevent social unrest and leads to revolution. This is not a fun time to be ruler of empire. (Debt Jubilees: An Ancient Solution for a Modern Problem)

This chart illustrates the current holders of US debt.

Is this feasible in the present day? How would nations/wealthy class who holding US debt react?

What about redistribute the wealth by taxing the rich to benefit poor? The wealthy class is likely to deploy its political influence and resources to prevent it, potentially intensifying social frustration and internal conflict.

More often than not, an indebted country almost always chooses to print money.

*Colonisation by exploit wealth from foreign land, using military might, was also common way to deal with indebtedness of empire, but we will exclude it for future discuss, as it might not be apparent in this day and ages.

Devaluation of Money/Debt:

History suggest, indebted governments often always resort to printing more money (or lowering interest rates) to manage their debts. This tactic can result in inflating the debt away, but it comes with risks. During periods of crisis, such as the Great Depression in the 1930s, the global financial crisis of 2008, and the 2020 pandemic, inflating the debt away might lead to uncontrollable inflation, widening wealth gaps, and heightened social unrest.

History offers numerous examples where high inflation fueled domestic violence and revolutions. The effects are particularly severe on the poorer segments of society, exacerbating resentment and discontent.

[Sources: Federal Reserve History - Latin American Debt Crisis, The Guardian - Arab Spring, The Trumpet - The Sri Lankan Revolution, BBC - Bangladesh]

Nationalism's Ambivalence: A Double-Edged Sword

Nationalism, a concept invented and only gain traction after World War I.

Nationalism is described as a group of people identify itself as country becoming so proud of their nation (patriotism) that they begin to feel superior to others. They believe their culture, values, and way of life is worth more than that of other countries, and therefore find themselves and their country to be more valuable than those from other countries.( it can applies to race, tribute, or even religion)

Although it possesses the tremendous ability to unite people during difficult times, whether for resistance or nation-building. However, like any powerful force, It’s a double-edge sword. History suggest, especially when use it inappropriately during turbulent times, It can prone to become a breeding ground for extreme social ideologies, often accompanied by charismatic leaders who rise to power with their radical views to address social frustrations and shifting blames. This intertwining with social upheaval can be manipulated by extremist leaders, potentially becoming a catalyst for lawless, authoritarianism and justifying violence against others, leading to significant human suffering.

An example is the Weimar German Republic in the aftermath of the 1929 Great Depression, which faced high debt, domestically economic difficulties and banking crisis. Soaring unemployment fueled extremism and violence on the far right and far left, leading to the rise of Adolf Hitler's Nazi Party and won power democratically in the 1930 German federal election and eventually leads to the tragedy of World War II. (Source: Adolf Hitler's rise to power)

Also, when nationalism is woven into social movement, it becomes a very powerful and dangerous tool for extreme leaders to direct general public's attention away from domestic economical hardship, consolidate power, eliminate political opponents, silence different voices, mobilize populations, toward delusional action leads to self destructive consequences, including involve in regional conflict and start foreign wars.

A notable example was Imperialist Japan, which, confronted with economic hardship domestically, arouse with extreme nationalism to initiate wars and colonization expansion in Asia. Even started delusional war (that it can’t possibly win), with at that time, militarily way superior USA, by attacking Pearl Harbour after a US oil embargo, leads to self-destructive human tragedy to it’s very own people - 2 nuclear bombs attack in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

[Sources: 75th anniversary of the dropping of the world's first atomic bomb]

Looking back recent year, Are we noticing a trend in elections across major nations, where leaders rise to power by emphasizing divisive issues? (such as minorities, immigration, religion, separatism from unions, foreign enemy. )

The result of election and choice of leader is arguably the indirect reflection on general public’s sentiment.

[Sources: How Far-Right Won the Dutch Election, Italy's most right-wing government since World War Two., UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak- toughest anti-illegal immigration law ever., Understanding Europe’s shift to the right , Trump is putting every racial, ethnic and religious minority at risk at a time of angry political polarization,]

Pay a close attention to 2024 moving forward, it’s the year of election in many countries.

[Sources: institute of international finance.]

Spectre of World War 3

”He says the war turned a peaceful nation into "one that was violent, aggressive, angst- and conflict-ridden, torn apart by invisible front lines of sectarian division, ethnic conflict and socio-economic and political upheaval”.

----Historian Gerhard Fisher

Wars can transform peaceful nations into violent, aggressive entities torn apart by internal divisions. Conflicts and alliances build up, forcing neutral countries to choose sides and get involved in the turmoil. The likelihood of war and conflict across various regions, with both sides supporting proxy wars, becomes increasingly plausible.

As of today, actively conflicts persist in Europe (Ukraine War ), the Middle East (Israeli-Gaza War), and potential hotspots in the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait. [Sources: Global Conflict Tracker]

What we view as basic and common, could very possibly change to uncommon overnight, Essentials such as home, safety, food, water, medical care, wealth. Families may face displacement or having loved one drag into military conflict, just because being in the wrong place at the wrong time. We could not even imagine how devastating war can do to humanity, as most of us haven’t actual experienced before.

Hypothetically speaking, if any powerful country facing terrible social order break down internally, (i.e China or the USA), as it may increase the risk of leaders resort to start foreign conflict or war to divert attention from domestic issues and solidify support, even if such decisions are irrational, miscalculated, might leads to tragedy.

The aim of this article is by no means to desire any nation or alliance to experience a situation like this. In fact, it is in everyone's best interest to hope that all countries, especially superpowers, thrive, develop, and maintain domestic and international stability, fostering peaceful coexistence. Humanity can celebrate its differences and live together in understanding, respect, peace, and harmony.

However, as a individual, there is only so little we can do with the progress of human history. what we focus is preparing ourselves and loved ones for potential storms and respond and adapting accordingly.

Weathering the Storm as a commoner.

Physical Location:

• Vulnerability for natural disaster and level of food/water self-sufficient.

• Proximity to potential global conflict zones/hotspots (e.g. Taiwan Strait, Korean Peninsula, or India-China border…etc)

• Internal resident dynamics, degree of social harmony.

*Access the risk based your unique situation and consider a backup plan for relocation/or being geographically mobile if necessary.

Economic Navigation:

• Diversify and store some wealth in asset that is neutral, hard to confiscate (hard money) to mitigate potential impacts for economic sanction, hyperinflation, currency devaluation or completely lost value during turbulence time.

• Limit exposure to conflict-prone countries, as historical evidence indicates that wealth can suffer significant losses regardless which of the winning or losing side within a conflicted nation. ( even real estate might become worthless if caught in war zone)

*Carefully consider how you can protect, move, or use your wealth in potential turbulent times.

Building Personal Resilience:

• Take care of physical and mental health

• Develop skills or businesses that provide real value.

• Control spending and build saving.

• Minimise/use debt carefully

• Cultivate critical thinking and equanimity

• Be aware of trends and remain vigilance against falling victim to propaganda or sentiment manipulation.

Community Resilience:

• Connect with like-minded individuals to build a supportive community.

• Establish a community support system to weather challenging times.

• Foster a sense of connection, It can be lonely to think independently, against prevailing sentiments.

Embracing Change:

• Acknowledge that change is constant and uncontrollable.

• Stay open-minded, prepare for the unexpected, and react to changes accordingly.

• Constantly remind yourself of what’s important to you and values.

Conclusion:

This article does not wish for failure or chaos for any nation or group. On the contrary, we hope that the scenarios described will never happen, and that people from all nations can live prosperously, safely, and harmoniously.

Being aware, prepared, and react to potential changes is crucial to better protect ourselves and our loved ones while building a meaningful life. Trying to be kind and understanding toward others, or at least refraining from spreading hatred.

Remember, anger and violence rarely truly solve problems.

As human beings, most of us share more commonalities than differences, desiring similar things: food, safety, a sense of belonging, love, and life.

“时代的一粒灰，落在个人头上，就是一座山”

In the grand sweep of history, even incidents that appear insignificant in the larger scope can carry a profound impact, proving to be too burdensome for an individual to bear.

This trend extends beyond the U.S alliances, with European countries and Japan on a similar trajectory, is alarmingly happening among government as well as private sector across the globe.

Despite accumulating massive debt, there's little indication that major economies are committed to reducing spending or even intention to paying back.

China’s President Xi Jinping told his ally Vladimir Putin that “Change is coming that hasn’t happened in 100 years.” in a farewell message before departing Moscow after meeting with the Russian leader. — Mar 2023

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Author: Numpi21

Twitter@Numpi_21

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